Adstock Portfolio OS Platform Status: Synced

Adstock Executive Dashboard

Analyzing $28,279,980 marketing investment across 6 channels • Bayesian Adstock & Hill Saturation Engine

📄 Methodology ↑ Upload CSV Upload Data
to Showing: 2024-01-01 to 2024-06-28

⚡ Budget Optimizer • Scenario Simulator

Mathematically equalizes marginal returns (mROI) across channels using non-linear SLSQP optimization under budget constraints.

92.7% Prediction Accuracy The Tipping Point (Hill Saturation): Active
Current Total Budget
$28,279,980
Current Predicted Revenue
$62,575,583
Optimized Revenue
$65,478,438
Projected Revenue Lift
+$2,902,855 (+4.64%)

Scenario Parameters

Diminishing Returns & Hill Saturation Response Curve

Visualizes non-linear response elasticity, optimal portfolio equilibrium, and the diminishing returns tipping point ($1.00 mROI).

High Headroom (mROI ≥ $1.00) Saturated / Wasted Spend (< $1.00)
Select Channel:

Recommended Channel Reallocation

The Tipping Point Exceeded Reallocate $-2,515,026 (-33.6%)
Meta: The Tipping Point Exceeded — Wasted Spend Detected
Marginal ROI ($0.59) has dropped below $1.00 into Wasted Spend. Capital reallocation recommended to eliminate saturation drag.
Untapped Channels Increase +$2,878,857 (+32.9%)
Connected TV: High Marginal Return Headroom
Marginal ROI ($1.80 → $1.33) indicates high headroom before The Tipping Point. Increasing budget captures incremental revenue.
Data Integrity Health Zero Synthetic Fill
Strict Non-Imputed Adstock
100% Observed Spend Integrity • 0 NaN Forward-Fills Detected
180 Days Observed • Checksum Verified
Channel Current Spend Optimal Spend Spend Shift Current mROI Optimal mROI Directive
Connected TV $8,749,036 $11,627,893 +$2,878,857 (+32.9%) $1.80 $1.33 Increase
Google $3,843,376 $5,590,719 +$1,747,342 (+45.5%) $1.33 $0.88 Increase
Meta $7,485,687 $4,970,662 $-2,515,026 (-33.6%) $0.59 $0.86 Decrease
Tiktok $5,443,715 $3,076,568 $-2,367,147 (-43.5%) $0.69 $1.13 Decrease
Youtube $2,217,336 $2,743,724 +$526,388 (+23.7%) $0.95 $0.76 Increase
Email $540,830 $270,415 $-270,415 (-50.0%) $0.00 $0.00 Decrease

Headline Recommendation

Increase Consider increasing budget in Ctv.

Confidence: Medium Model fit is OK. Use this directionally and validate with experiments.

Quick Numbers — Ctv

Total Spend
$8,749,036
Attributed Revenue
$31,463,774
Average ROI
3.60
Marginal ROI
1.80

Actual vs Predicted Revenue

Channel ROI Breakdown

Channel Total Spend Attributed Revenue ROI Marginal ROI
Ctv
$8,749,036 $31,463,774 3.60 1.80
Google
$3,843,376 $10,129,406 2.64 1.33
Meta
$7,485,687 $8,732,908 1.17 0.59
TikTok
$5,443,715 $7,423,769 1.36 0.69
YouTube
$2,217,336 $4,130,861 1.86 0.95
Email
$540,830 $0 0.00 0.00

Attributed Revenue by Channel

Marginal ROI by Channel

Response Curve & The Tipping Point: Ctv

Calibrated Hill saturation dynamics — identifying the tipping point spend beyond which marginal returns fall below breakeven ($1.00 mROI).

Untapped Headroom Wasted Spend (<$1.00 mROI)

How to Read These Numbers

  • ROI (Average Return on Investment) — How much revenue each channel generated for every $1 you spent — across the entire time period. ROI of 1.0 means you broke even. Above 1.0, the channel earned more than it cost. Below 1.0, the channel lost money.

    For example, Email with an ROI of 2.79 means every $1 spent on Email returned $2.79 in revenue — your most efficient channel historically. Meta at 1.09 is just above breakeven. YouTube at 0.77 means it cost more than it brought back.

  • Marginal ROI (The Tipping Point & Next-Dollar Return) — If you were to spend one more dollar on a channel right now, how much revenue would it generate? The threshold of $1.00 mROI marks The Tipping Point. Beyond this point, additional investment yields diminishing returns resulting in Wasted Spend.

    For example, Google has an average ROI of 1.47 — historically profitable. But its Marginal ROI is only 0.74, meaning it has passed The Tipping Point and incremental dollars represent wasted spend. Email's Marginal ROI of 1.40 tells a different story — it represents an Untapped Channel where additional capital captures profitable returns.

  • Delayed Sales & Lasting Impact (Carryover) — Marketing doesn't work in a single day. An ad someone sees on Monday can drive a purchase on Wednesday. The carryover rate measures how much of each day's marketing impact lingers into the following days. Higher carryover means lasting impact across days and weeks.

    For example, if you spend $10,000 on Meta today, about $5,000 worth of impact carries into tomorrow, $2,500 into the day after, and so on. This is why pausing a channel doesn't immediately stop its effect — and why restarting a paused channel takes time to ramp back up. TV and brand campaigns tend to have high carryover. Paid search and email tend to have low carryover with near-instant results.

Why a High-ROI Channel Might Receive $0 New Budget

A channel can show the highest ROI in your portfolio and still receive $0 additional budget.

Here is why: a channel can look excellent on average across the entire period, but when we re-run the analysis leaving out different portions of the time period, some channels hold steady while others swing wildly or drop to no measurable effect at all. Spending more money against an unconfirmed signal is how marketing budgets get wasted. Before recommending a budget increase, Adstock verifies that a channel’s returns are dependable across different slices of data. If the signal isn’t reliable yet, we hold spend flat and recommend an incrementality test to verify true lift before committing more capital.

Recommendation Confidence Badges

High Confidence Consistent, proven returns. The channel reliably drives sales across different time periods. Safe to scale proportionally based on its profit above breakeven.
Moderate Confidence Promising, but fluctuating. The channel is profitable, but its impact varies noticeably across periods. We recommend a small, exploratory increase (capped at +5%) while monitoring performance.
Unverified New or limited data. There isn’t enough historical depth to measure consistency across time periods. Capped at a +5% exploratory shift to protect budget.
Needs Testing Unconfirmed signal. In some time periods, the evidence for any lift disappeared entirely. Even if historical ROI looks high, budget is held steady ($0 change) until an incrementality test proves true incremental impact.
Trim Spend Returns below breakeven. Every additional dollar spent is losing money (< $1.00 marginal return). Budget is trimmed to fund higher-return, verified channels.

Source: Demo data · Run run-11cb